Abstract

Alternative splicing, the mechanism by which intronic sequences are excised from pre-mRNAs to produce mature mRNA, affects >95% of human protein-coding genes and is a major driver of human disease states. The spliceosome, a protein-RNA complex responsible for splicing pre-mRNA, identifies candidate splice sites partly through the recognition of characteristic sequence motifs at exon-intron junctions. Deep learning models that predict the presence of splice sites from pre-mRNA sequence have achieved breakthrough performance relative to previous machine-learning techniques, and these models have improved our ability to identify pathogenic genetic variants that alter splicing. We show that, while overall performance measures from these models suggest near-perfect performance, substantial gaps in prediction remain, including the identification of splice sites with low usage rates and tissue-specific splice sites. We leverage one of the largest paired RNA and genotyping datasets used to date to train a novel splicing model optimized for a specific cell type, human airway epithelial cells. We trained a dilated convolutional neural network on data from cultured airway epithelial cells from 100 donors, and showed that this model outperforms current state-of-the-art models on splice site identification and splice site usage quantification, including on multiple tissues not included in the model training data. We present the most comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art splicing models published to date, revealing reasonable performance across models for genetic variant effect prediction, along with important performance gaps and insights into directions for future model development.