Abstract

Background Wolbachia-based control methods reduce dengue transmission by suppressing Aedes aegypti populations or blocking viral replication, yet their effectiveness across the climatic conditions of endemic regions remains poorly understood. Seasonal and interannual temperature changes shape mosquito dynamics, but how Wolbachia releases perform during anomalous events such as El Nino or heatwaves is largely unknown a gap that limits our ability to optimize release strategies and predict intervention success across different climates. Methodology/Principal Findings To address this gap, we built a mathematical modeling framework that explicitly incorporates temperature-dependent Wolbachia parameters together with the seasonal and interannual climate variability characteristic of dengue-endemic regions, coupling a detailed Wolbachia dynamics model with a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) epidemiological model to evaluate Wolbachia establishment, persistence, and stability under different thermal regimes and trace their downstream impact on disease spread. Higher temperatures eroded both Wolbachia establishment and long-term persistence, sharply narrowing the range of effective release strategies as conditions approached 30 C. Seasonality added a further layer of complexity: the timing of thermal stress relative to Wolbachia frequency, not merely its magnitude, determined whether population replacement succeeded. Interannual shifts, progressive warming, widening seasonal swings, and displaced thermal peaks, each eroded Wolbachia prevalence and stability, with effects that compounded over successive years. Dengue transmission tracked these dynamics closely, with warmer conditions producing larger, earlier outbreaks, and intervention success hinging on how release timing, frequency, and targeting were matched to local thermal conditions. Conclusions/Significance As extreme heat events become more frequent under climate change, release programs that ignore local thermal conditions risk falling short where dengue control is most needed. By elucidating the mechanistic interplay among temperature, Wolbachia, and dengue, our findings help refine Wolbachia release programs to suit different climatic conditions, thereby strengthening dengue control as climate variability intensifies.